Russia

(External Content) Cyber Deterrence Theory

Abstract: This study endeavors to identify the shortfalls of the United States current utilization of deterrence theory in light of a growing amount of asymmetric warfare, warfare from afar, and cyber warfare that may rise to the level of weapons of mass destruction level. It proposes that this deterrence theory should be modernized to less developing a strategic common practice where some aggression is tolerated, and intolerable acts of aggression are retaliated with through diplomatic and economic tools against individuals involved within the organization perpetuating the aggression.

Citation: Hallock, Danial (2018).  "Modernizing Deterrence Theory." AMU. Accessed at: https://www.danialhallock.com/blog/2018/4/1/modernizing-deterrence-theory

Related Articles: Paradox of ProgressRedefining the Cold War; Syria, North Korea, and Trump

Abstract: This study identifies prior authoritative research into attribution assessments, their shortfalls, and recommends several potential avenues of improvement, namely the targeting of individual persons within non-state actors and advanced persistent threat actors conducting cyber attacks against the U.S. and her allies utilizing prior research into pyschology and motivational theories. 

Citation: Hallock, Danial (2018).  "Solving the Issue of Attribution, Targeting, and Retaliation." AMU. Accessed at: https://www.danialhallock.com/blog/2018/4/1/modernizing-deterrence-theory

Related Articles: When Bots Become Bombs, Paradox of Progress, The Accidental World War



The Third U.S. National Climate Assessment

The Third U.S. National Climate Assessment

The Washington Post reported yesterday that the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3)  published a rather dire scientific report Friday detailing the growing threats of climate change. The report stands in stark contrast to the administration’s efforts to downplay humans’ role in global warming, withdraw from an international climate accord and reverse Obama-era policies aimed at curbing U.S. greenhouse-gas output.

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to attempt to deny the existence of climate change while Chinese leadership assumes the mantle of combating it, and Russia repositions its naval and air forces, and petroleum industry, to benefit from it.  The current Secretary of Defense, Mattis, at least recognizes the instability that Climate Change can bring, but he seems decidedly alone in this Administration.

Unfortunately, consumer consumption reductions alone cannot stop or reverse Climate Change.  This is a global crisis that requires a global response - starting with our elected officials. Vote for Democrats or Common-Sense Republicans at your local, state, and federal levels.  If you have the ability:  Donate to their campaigns.

Redefining the Cold War

Redefining the Cold War

Consider the following questions:

  • How does a NATO country, like Belgium or Spain, raise its defense spending rapidly over the short term (i.e. 4 years) without incurring the risk associated with research and development or costs associated with increased manpower?
  • How does a businessman-turned-politician drive down the costs of a weapon's program whose costs are "out of control?"
  • How does one make good on promises to "bring manufacturing jobs back home?" to appease Economic Security voters?
  • How does an administration, in dire need of showing strength against a country who allegedly helped it get elected do so without leading to an accidental international incident?

The answer to all of these is through Foreign Military Sales; the one thing that the U.S. government has been decidedly good at over the last several decades.  Currently, the most prolific export of the U.S. military sale market is the F-35 and it has been catapulted into the limelight as a cornerstone in the next Cold War.

The Accidental World War

The Accidental World War

A recent report by the Washington Post claims that the IC is investigating the possibility of Russian influence in American politics through cyber attacks, propaganda, and disinformation.  While this makes for a fantastic headline, it doesn't really tell us anything.  

However, the existence of the investigation does give us an interesting thought experiment. US interests are routinely being barraged by cyber attacks, like the Sony hack by North Korea in 2014, that are nominally ignored by the US government apparatus and IC alike.  However, there are two key differences between an attack at the electoral system:  First, it is an attack that undermines our ability to practice democracy; and second, it undermines our ability to project military, political, and technological power throughout the rest of the world.

Understanding American Geopolitics

Understanding American Geopolitics

American geopolitics is something that every voting citizen should know, but is seldom taught in public education institutions.  With so many trillions of tax payer dollars dedicated to keeping these geopolitical areas open and amiable to US interests, it's only fair that American voters know of at least a couple of them.

Understanding RADAR and "Stealth" Aircraft

Understanding RADAR and "Stealth" Aircraft

You have no doubt heard of the F-35 or F-22 and wondered why these aircraft are so damn expensive, and why they are so controversial.  I can't seek to answer those questions for you, but I can help to explain the academics behind fifth generation aircraft and their low observable (or "stealth") technology.

Low observable technology is important for several reasons, not least of which is the simple fact that you cannot shoot what you do not know exists.  Hollywood movies like to highlight the importance of "heat seeking missiles" (professionally known as "infrared (IR) missiles"), but most modern warfare is conducted now beyond visual range and relies heavily on radar guided missiles.  These are an impressive jump in technology, but they do rely heavily on your ability to detect the target on your radar.

More likely than not, the existence of fifth generation aircraft is signaling the start of a new arms race in which the four major super powers (European Union, United States, Russia, and China) are modernizing their air forces to ensure their pilots are able to fly longer and strike further against any adversary they may encounter.  This recent push to modernize is likely an attempt for those powers to retain their competitive edge in a global deterrent based strategy similar to that of the Cold War. However, unlike the Cold War, these weapons can be used and exported without fearing for their direct contribution to humanity's destruction